Benjamin HAMIDI, Christophe HURLIN, Patrick KOUONTCHOU, Bertrand MAILLET
This paper introduces a new class of models for the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES), called the Dynamic AutoRegressive Expectiles (DARE) models. Our approach is based on a weighted average of expectile-based VaR and ES models, i.e. the Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) models introduced by Taylor (2008a) and Kuan et al. (2009). First, we briefly present the main non-parametric, parametric and semi-parametric estimation methods for VaR and ES. Secondly, we detail the DARE approach and show how the expectiles can be used to estimate quantile risk measures. Thirdly, we use various backtesting tests to compare the DARE approach to other traditional methods for computing VaR forecasts on the French stock market. Finally, we evaluate the impact of several conditional weighting functions and determine the optimal weights in order to dynamically select the more relevant global quantile model.
Laura BALLOTTA, Gianluca FUSAI
We present a multivariate version of a structural default model with jumps and use it in order to quantify the bilateral credit value adjustment and the bilateral debt value adjustment for equity contracts, such as forwards, in a Merton-type default setting. In particular, we explore the impact of changing correlation between names on these adjustments and study the effect of wrong-way and right-way risk.
Nihat AKTAS, Marion DUPIRE-DECLERCK
This paper examines whether and how increased entry threat drives industry merger activity. We use the reduction in import tariffs as a natural experiment of exogenous increase in competitive intensity and study its effect on merger and acquisition (M&A) decisions. Our results indicate that competition drives M&As towards more efficient resource allocation. We first document that increased entry threat intensifies takeover activity, consistent with the argument that M&As are an efficient reaction to economic shocks. We also find that, after import tariff reductions, the selection of targets outside the industry becomes more efficient and industry rivals react more positively to those deals, suggesting that efficient non-horizontal deals signal the existence of investment opportunities outside the industry for the industry peers.